mardi 4 août 2015

Decision Tree Software | Decision Tree Analysis in Excel | Syncopation Software  CONTACT/ MY ACCOUNT/ CART  DECISION ANALYSIS THE DECISION ANALYSIS ADVANTAGE Learn more about Decision Analysis THE DECISION ANALYSIS PROCESS Find out how Decision Analysis can help you WHAT IS A DECISION TREE? A simple Decision Tree example for those new to decision analysis WHAT IS AN INFLUENCE DIAGRAM? Learn how to use an Influence Diagram to frame a strategic business decision INSTRUCTIONAL VIDEOS Learn about basic decision analysis tools and concepts    PRODUCTS PRODUCT COMPARISON Which version of DPL is right for you? WHAT'S NEW IN DPL 8 The same powerful software with an improved interface PRODUCT VERSIONS DPL DIRECT »DPL PROFESSIONAL »DPL ENTERPRISE »DPL PORTFOLIO » SEE DPL IN ACTION DPMX A decision analytic portfolio management system TAKE A TEST DRIVE ORDER DPL NOW    INDUSTRIES SUCCESS STORIES See how DPL helped these companies make better decisions INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE Relavant experience for every decision CUSTOMERS APPLICATIONS    SUPPORT REGISTER DPL Get the latest support & product update information DOWNLOADS PRODUCT UPDATES »PRODUCT MANUALS » KNOWLEDGE BASE FAQ TRAINING Online, group & customized training on DPL PREMIUM CARE Sign up today for email & phone support, and product updates    ABOUT SYNCOPATION COMPANY HISTORY Find out more about DPL software's history -- one that spans over 20 years OUR PEOPLE Meet the folks behind the DPL Software OPPORTUNITIES Discover opportunities at Syncopation Software   Decision Tree Software Start Building Practical, Scalable Decision Trees in Excel with DPL DIRECT DPL DIRECT is a pure Excel Add-in that can transform your rigid, deterministic cash flow spreadsheet into a flexible, probabilistic decision tree model that precisely describes your real-world problem.  How can DPL Direct help you? Through a decision analysis approach, DPL Direct offers easy-to-use features that allow you to intuitively structure the problem at hand, explicitly map out the possible alternatives, and confidently identify the optimal decision policy given the range of outcomes possible. The steps for building a decision model are simple: Group assumptions, metrics, and parameters on a single sheet -- have these flow through the cash flow calculationsDefine the output metric along with decision and chance driversRun a sensitivity analysis in order to keep focus on the factors that are the greatest drivers of valueIf necessary, refine the model by adding dependencies, reordering the tree, or introducing asymmetrySelect the outputs you'd like to generate and run a Decision AnalysisInspect the results and identify the winning strategy! During a Decision Analysis run DPL Direct will select the optimal alternative for each decision, both up-front and downstream, by maximizing or minimizing (if appropriate) the expected value of the output metric at each point in the decision tree to ensure the best decision is made, given the range of outcomes that are possible in the decision model. What is DPL Direct used for? Typical applications include: R&D project prioritizationCapital allocation under uncertaintySchedule risk analysis / forecastingLifecycle management of capital assetsValuation of early stage / at-risk companiesSupply chain risk management Why is it better than other Decision Tree Add-ins? Decisions: Modeled explicitly with specific alternatives (e.g., we can build, abandon, or wait) and not as complicated rules. The optimal decision policy is indicated at each point in the tree, initially and downstream. Dependence: No correlation coefficients; probabilistic and value-wise dependence is defined explicitly as well ("if we know natural gas prices are high the likelihood changes to ..."). Outputs: An outcome probability distribution is simply not enough. DPL Direct offers all the essential decision/risk analysis outputs in the form of Excel-native charts so you can easily customize as you see fit and paste them into PowerPoint or other programs. These include: Policy TreeTMRisk ProfileValue of Information/ControlPolicy SummaryTornado DiagramRainbow Diagram Scalability: Unlike many other decision tree add-ins, DPL Direct's Decision Tree is descriptive yet compact and easy to manipulate. Furthermore, DPL Direct is unique in that the input tree (i.e., decision tree) is separate from the output tree (Policy TreeTM), allowing you to precisely model a give problem without it growing into unwieldy, bushy mess. Who uses DPL? DPL isn't designed for a single industry vertical. For over 20 years DPL has been helping industry leaders make profitable decisions within the Pharmaceutical, Oil & Gas, Electric and Utilities, Consumer Products, Mining & Energy, and the Aerospace and Defense sectors. Additionally, the ease-of-use and familiar spreadsheet environment makes it a great tool for academic instruction or anyone just getting started with decision modeling. Here are some of our satisfied DPL customers:                                                                                                       See DPL Direct in Action! Download a free, 21-day trial of DPL Direct via the form at the top-right of this page or watch this short 3-minute introduction: To view more videos of DPL Direct, clickhere. Are there any other versions of DPL? Yes! If you're an experienced decision analyst or have used DPL in the past, you may want to check out our DPL Professionalversion. Home Try DPL for Free! 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